We are here. The summer games open today with arguably the greatest show on earth. The competition has already kicked off with soccer and we have already had an upset with Spain losing to Japan. Is this an indication of the script that is going to unfold for the three week extravaganza? Lets look at the top five nations on the medals list from Beijing and see if any of them can be displaced from their exalted status.
China topped their home games with 51 golds and a total of 100 medals. They dominated badminton, table tennis, diving, gymnastics, shooting and weight lifting, a total of 36 golds coming from these disciplines. Can they go on and repeat the feat? Looks unlikely. While the racquet games and diving may still fetch them a handful of podium finishes, they are in for a fight in gymnastics, shooting and weight lifting. China will certainly figure in the top three of the list but probably not on top.
The US are the traditional Olympic power house. They were upset at Beijing and had to settle with the second spot. Though their medal count of 110 was superior to China, they managed only 36 golds and its that hue of metal that counts most. They would look to usurp China's dominance in gymnastics and maintain their stranglehold on swimming and athletics which fetched them 19 golds. Their all round winning abilities should get them fringe medals from a a lot of disciplines and are a good bet to top the table this time around.
Russia have had to play second fiddle after the Soviet Union breaking up. They won 23 golds and a total of 73 medals in 2008 and were placed third in the rankings. They would be looking to go at least one better this time around. Athletics and wrestling are their strong suits and they would look to regain the lost gymnastic glory to pip China for the second post. They may spring a few surprises in the pool as well and improve on their silver showing in weight lifting.
Great Britain and N Ireland are the hosts in London and they would look to maintain their fourth position if not go one better. The bagged 19 golds and and total of 47 medal doing well in cycling and sailing. While they would maintain their supremacy in these two, athletics and boxing may bring them better laurels on the home turf. They wouldn't mind a soccer gold and would look to score medals in more disciplines than they did in China.
Germany rounded off the top 5 in 2008 with 16 golds and a total of 41 medals. They would face stiff competition from Australia to maintain a top five finish. Looking to maintain their position in the water games (canoe) and equestrian, they would want to fend off Australia in the swimming stakes and look to better their tally in shooting and cycling. Whether they are replaced by Australia in this list will depend on how the Aussies make or break their swimming dreams.
I don't expect a big change in the constituents of the top five list in these summer games but there surely will be a churn in terms of positions and the fight will be worth watching.
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